Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfca4…e183
sports · 361 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$382 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$382 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses174 / 186
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)360 / 361
History coverage76d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 360 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$4
14 days−$186
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 40¢ 44¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Xinxin Yao Lanlana Tararudee 38¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Elmer Moeller vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Marin Cilic 20¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Taylor Fritz 21¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Guillaume Dalmasso Guillaume Dalmasso 18¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-03? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Parma: Kaja Juvan vs Moyuka Uchijima Moyuka Uchijima 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Daniel Merida Aguilar 19¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh Michael Mmoh 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Alina Charaeva vs Jessica Pieri Jessica Pieri 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bengaluru 3: Keegan Smith vs Manish Sureshkumar Keegan Smith 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Athletics vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Istanbul: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Laura Pigossi Linda Fruhvirtova 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Francavilla: Max Schoenhaus vs Zdenek Kolar Zdenek Kolar 29¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Johannus Monday 37¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev Pablo Llamas Ruiz 44¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic McCartney Kessler 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs David Jorda Sanchis Andrej Nedic 20¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-02? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur 31¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $7 +$8 +111%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $11 +$4 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $11 +$1 +7%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 +$8 +77%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $13 +$2 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $11 +$8 +78%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $6 +$13 +222%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $20 +$39 +199%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $6 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $17 +$5 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $10 +$8 +84%
ITF Caserta: Federica Urgesi vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 07 $11 +$6 +54%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $7 +$7 +103%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $13 +$9 +69%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Alina Charaeva Jun 07 $16 +$5 +31%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $7 −$1 -21%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $22 +$3 +14%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dimitris Azoidis Jun 06 $4 +$2 +52%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 06 $11 $0 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 05 $6 −$6 -99%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Caserta: Laura Pigossi vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $8 +$9 +106%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $6 +$3 +46%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $4 +$2 +56%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $13 −$13 -98%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 04 $11 −$11 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $10 +$3 +29%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $17 +$1 +5%
Birmingham: Ashlyn Krueger vs Janice Tjen Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $8 +$6 +80%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $30 −$10 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$499
other 26% +$90
crypto 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 40¢ $8 7m
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 41¢ $8 18m
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 40¢ $8 45m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 21¢ $4 3h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 17¢ $2 3h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 17¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 17¢ $0 3h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 43¢ $4 4h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 50¢ $10 4h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 49¢ $3 5h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 49¢ $4 5h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 49¢ $2 5h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 78¢ $8 5h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 50¢ $5 7h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 42¢ $4 22h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 58¢ $6 22h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $3 22h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 75¢ $30 26h
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 5¢ $1 28h
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 40¢ $12 28h
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Ugo Humbert 52¢ $31 31h
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 37¢ $12 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 43¢ $2 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 43¢ $1 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ $3 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 28¢ $3 2d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 28¢ $8 2d
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 39¢ $11 3d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 64¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +4.2% -5.7% 64% 52% -10.5%
≤30d 165 -14.1% -22.3% 52% 48% -22.8%
≤90d 360 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 44% -16.6%
all 360 -3.9% -13.0% 48% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 44% -16.6%
10% -21.3% 38% -24.6%
15% -28.9% 32% -31.9%
20% -35.9% 28% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.90 · official $8.90 (match) · 1038 history records