Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfca8…8a52 other 49 markets active 6d ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate90%44W / 5L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% −$1
other 8% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.3% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤30d 1 +6.3% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤90d 4 -46.8% -51.9% 50% 0% -50.2%
all 49 +1.4% -8.3% 90% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 18% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses44 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage537d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 26 $4 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jan 25 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Jan 22 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $4 $0 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 01 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $3 $0 +4%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 26 $2 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 01 $3 $0 +3%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Oct 25 $2 $0 +9%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 13 $4 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $4 $0 +8%
WLFI >$20B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Sep 03 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Sep 02 $3 $0 +11%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15? Aug 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $1 $0 +25%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Aug 02 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? Jul 18 $4 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Jul 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jun 28 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? May 23 $3 $0 +18%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 9–16? May 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 9–16? May 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 25–May 2? May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 25–May 2? Apr 30 $2 $0 +6%
OpenSea airdrop before April? Apr 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21? Mar 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? Mar 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21? Feb 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 825-849 times Feb 7-14? Feb 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 09 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester City win again in 2024? Jan 08 $1 $0 +33%
Will Tyson Fury KO Oleksandr Usyk? Dec 29 $0 $0 +22%
Scorigami in NFL Week 16? Dec 29 $0 $0 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 37d
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $3 69d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 94¢ $4 90d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 107d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 BUY No 86¢ $3 144d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 155d
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $4 163d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $2 182d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 96¢ $2 188d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 99¢ $3 195d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 98¢ $2 198d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 BUY No 96¢ $3 201d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $2 218d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $3 234d
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $2 241d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 99¢ $2 267d
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? BUY No 95¢ $4 279d
Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5? BUY No 93¢ $4 287d
WLFI >$20B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 288d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? BUY No 90¢ $3 294d
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 8–August 15? BUY No 96¢ $3 308d
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 316d
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? BUY No 96¢ $4 321d
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? BUY No 94¢ $4 335d
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? BUY No 92¢ $3 351d
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? BUY No 96¢ $3 359d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? BUY No 91¢ $3 373d
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 97¢ $3 380d
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? SELL No 84¢ $3 385d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.70 · official $1.70 (match) · 97 history records