Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfca9…7b25 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%30W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$54
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$85
other 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 52 +41.1% +27.7% 58% 56% -14.8%
≤90d 52 +41.1% +27.7% 58% 56% -14.8%
all 52 +41.1% +27.7% 58% 56% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.7% 56% -14.8%
10% +15.4% 52% -22.9%
15% +4.3% 50% -30.4%
20% -5.9% 44% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage13d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$19 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$33 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$32 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$56 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$16 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$42 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $55 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $32 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $35 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $45 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $36 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $35 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $48 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $39 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $29 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $29 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $39 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $39 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $43 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $22 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $42 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $36 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records