Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfcaf…5175 politics 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$7
sports 25% −$4
other 25% −$4
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 63 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage208d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $269 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $269 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $270 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 02 $270 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $270 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $272 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $272 $0 +0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $272 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 05 $273 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $260 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 07 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $267 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $268 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $261 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $268 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 28 $269 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $266 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $269 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $268 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $271 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $269 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $273 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $269 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $269 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $269 34h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $269 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $269 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $269 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $269 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $269 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $269 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $270 11d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $270 25d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $270 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $270 26d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $270 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $270 31d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $270 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 40d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 43d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $271 44d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $271 45d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $271 53d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $160 54d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 54d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $272 71d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $68 71d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $99 71d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $99 71d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $7 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records