trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +52.6% | +38.1% | 57% | 57% | +13.7% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +45.5% | +31.6% | 50% | 50% | +7.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +41.1% | +27.6% | 56% | 44% | +3.8% |
| all | 25 | -7.1% | -15.9% | 40% | 36% | -15.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.9% | 36% | -15.0% |
| 10% | -24.0% | 36% | -23.1% |
| 15% | -31.3% | 32% | -30.6% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 32% | -37.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 7¢ | $338 | $561 | +$223 (+66%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 38¢ | $280 | $362 | +$82 (+29%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 56¢ | $399 | $301 | −$99 (-25%) |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $93 | +$43 (+86%) |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) | Canada | 53¢ | 94¢ | $32 | $57 | +$25 (+78%) |
| Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score | No | 56¢ | 64¢ | $24 | $27 | +$3 (+14%) |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $40 | $21 | −$19 (-47%) |
| Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 | Under | 52¢ | 65¢ | $17 | $21 | +$4 (+25%) |
| Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $30 | $20 | −$11 (-35%) |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 35¢ | 12¢ | $40 | $13 | −$27 (-67%) |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 1¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $21 | +$12 | +57% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 18 | $24 | +$42 | +172% |
| Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 | Jun 18 | $28 | +$28 | +97% |
| Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 | Jun 18 | $21 | +$54 | +250% |
| Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 | Jun 18 | $23 | −$2 | -8% |
| Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31? | Jun 17 | $62 | −$62 | -100% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | May 29 | $66 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 31 | $110 | +$7 | +6% |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Mar 04 | $417 | +$101 | +24% |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? | Feb 10 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Feb 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? | Feb 04 | $76 | −$76 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Feb 04 | $311 | −$140 | -45% |
| Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 01 | $101 | +$50 | +50% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 01 | $180 | +$135 | +75% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Jan 30 | $849 | −$7 | -1% |
| Miami vs. Ole Miss | Jan 09 | $54 | −$54 | -100% |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio | Jan 08 | $57 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-06? | Jan 07 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Jan 07 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06? | Jan 07 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 | Jan 06 | $25 | +$25 | +100% |
| Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-06? | Jan 06 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? | Jan 06 | $50 | +$27 | +54% |