Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfcb4…e0a9 politics 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$17
politics 42% −$19
tech 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$2
sports 3% +$31
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 +0.6% -9.0% 6% 5% -9.5%
all 124 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 6% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage117d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $596 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $340 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $310 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $301 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $308 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $272 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $229 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $321 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $301 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $261 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 7h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 14h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 14h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $37 23h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $37 38h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $30 44h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $30 46h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 18d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.97 · official $55.97 (match) · 384 history records