Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfcb6…9dca crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$4 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$40
sports 11% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.4% +8.1% 56% 56% +24.9%
≤30d 9 +19.4% +8.1% 56% 56% +24.9%
≤90d 9 +19.4% +8.1% 56% 56% +24.9%
all 9 +19.4% +8.1% 56% 56% +24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 56% +24.9%
10% -2.3% 44% +13.0%
15% -11.7% 44% +2.1%
20% -20.4% 33% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage10d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 50¢ 94¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+87%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$20 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$16 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.14 · official $25.14 (match) · 28 history records