Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcb7…b163 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$126 (-29%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%23W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$31
sports 42% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 53% 27% -43.7%
≤30d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 53% 27% -43.7%
≤90d 15 -33.7% -40.0% 53% 27% -43.7%
all 37 -27.0% -33.9% 62% 24% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 24% -40.7%
10% -40.2% 11% -46.4%
15% -46.0% 8% -51.5%
20% -51.3% 3% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses23 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage110d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 26 $8 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 26 $12 $0 +3%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 26 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 26 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 26 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 26 $23 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 26 $23 $0 +1%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Feb 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 26 $21 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 26 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 26 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 26 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 26 $15 −$5 -33%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Feb 26 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $60 +$11 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records