Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcb7…cff9 other 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$47
sports 24% −$22
economics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$6
politics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage137d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $350 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $365 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $131 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $135 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $648 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $502 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $445 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $684 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $288 −$2 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $175 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $374 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $395 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $537 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $360 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 25m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 3h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 4h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 12h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 15h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 16h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 24h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 34h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 44h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1457 history records