Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcba…dffa crypto 819 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,493 (-3%) realized −$3,492 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%440W / 469L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,732
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -78.7% -80.7% 12% 9% -39.7%
≤30d 685 -11.4% -19.8% 47% 38% -18.5%
≤90d 909 -9.4% -18.1% 48% 39% -17.8%
all 909 -9.4% -18.1% 48% 39% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 39% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 27% -25.7%
15% -33.1% 18% -32.9%
20% -39.6% 11% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$41 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$3,492
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses440 / 469
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)909 / 819
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$129
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 74¢ 74¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$46 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$44 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2AM ET Jun 21 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$84 -270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$9 -991%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$17 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$4 -250%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1AM ET Jun 21 $96 −$142 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 74¢ $97 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $170 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $170 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $213 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $212 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $294 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Down 50¢ $294 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 57¢ $354 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 43¢ $354 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 75¢ $655 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 79¢ $319 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 85¢ $350 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 91¢ $367 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 82¢ $337 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 47¢ $195 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 54¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $225 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 49¢ $225 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $263 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $264 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $230 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $173 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.11 · official $95.11 (match) · 3500 history records