Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcbd…ed28 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$7
other 18% −$2
sports 11% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 38% 12% -6.8%
≤90d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 38% 12% -6.8%
all 33 -2.9% -12.2% 39% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -8.3%
10% -20.6% 3% -17.1%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage464d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $48 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $6 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $26 +$7 +26%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $21 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? Mar 13 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $10 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $15 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $41 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 29h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $38 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $38 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $37 26d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $0 184d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 331d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $8 357d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 376d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $8 403d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 403d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records