Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcbe…8f44 crypto 350 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$112,555 (+58%) realized +$2,482 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate81%249W / 59L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day74.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$2,547
14 days−$3,842
30 days−$6,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$2,078
other 4% +$381
finance 3% −$104
world 3% +$80
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 64% 16% -4.1%
≤30d 108 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 22% -13.3%
≤90d 308 -1.5% -10.9% 81% 12% -8.4%
all 308 -1.5% -10.9% 81% 12% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 12% -8.4%
10% -19.4% 8% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 6% -25.1%
20% -34.4% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$388 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,482
Realized+$2,482
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses249 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions42
Markets (closed)308 / 350
History coverage43d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day74.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $790 $744 −$45 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $304 $307 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? No 98¢ 93¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 98¢ 95¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? No 98¢ 91¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3,549 −$9 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,121 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $3,838 +$82 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2,207 +$80 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $262 +$127 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2,536 +$775 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,689 +$199 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $452 −$38 -8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8,090 +$419 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5,341 −$99 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3,055 −$160 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $972 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $600 −$6 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 12? Jun 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $750 +$35 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5,476 +$1,011 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $921 +$132 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6PM ET Jun 07 $420 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 07 $2,278 +$53 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3PM ET Jun 07 $1,457 −$1,457 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET Jun 07 $972 −$969 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $8,404 −$5,365 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $3,682 +$649 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9PM ET Jun 07 $988 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET Jun 07 $102 −$91 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 07 $190 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $1,059 +$348 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $103 −$92 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $308 −$290 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $310 −$174 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $510 +$181 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 05 $421 +$323 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $501 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $309 +$49 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $302 −$228 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $308 −$48 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 05 $388 +$194 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $1,049 +$50 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $505 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $983 −$301 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $317 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $91 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $257 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,481.57 · official $1,481.57 (match) · 3500 history records