Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FC 0xfcbf…8876 crypto 706 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$257 (+1%) realized +$173 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate73%514W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days−$358
14 days−$358
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,404
other 2% −$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.6% -17.3% 67% 33% -50.2%
≤30d 37 -14.9% -23.0% 68% 65% -44.8%
≤90d 705 -6.7% -15.5% 73% 72% -17.2%
all 705 -6.7% -15.5% 73% 72% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 72% -17.2%
10% -23.6% 40% -25.1%
15% -31.0% 13% -32.3%
20% -37.8% 6% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$28 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses514 / 191
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 706
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 88¢ $100 $184 +$84 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $200 −$400 -200%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 27 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.37 · official $180.21 · 3500 history records