Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfcc1…5f74 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-27%) realized −$130 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$17
crypto 11% −$40
sports 7% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.0% -34.0% 43% 43% -32.4%
≤30d 7 -27.0% -34.0% 43% 43% -32.4%
≤90d 7 -27.0% -34.0% 43% 43% -32.4%
all 7 -27.0% -34.0% 43% 43% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 43% -32.4%
10% -40.3% 43% -38.9%
15% -46.1% 43% -44.8%
20% -51.4% 43% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$41 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $80 $106 +$26 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 +$34 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $57 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.44 · official $106.44 (match) · 11 history records