Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

FC 0xfcc4…2898 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$242 (+24%) realized +$184 · open +$58

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$64

7 days+$87

14 days+$176

30 days+$176

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+2.0%	-7.7%	56%	56%	+12.9%
≤30d	18	-8.0%	-16.7%	44%	44%	+17.4%
≤90d	18	-8.0%	-16.7%	44%	44%	+17.4%
all	18	-8.0%	-16.7%	44%	44%	+17.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.7%	44%	+17.4%
10%	-24.7%	44%	+6.1%
15%	-32.0%	44%	-4.1%
20%	-38.6%	39%	-13.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -18% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$49 vs −$21 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage

Net worth$445

Realized+$184

Unrealized+$58

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage29d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	14¢	$200	$341	+$141 (+70%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	5¢	$187	$105	−$82 (-44%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$111	+$59	+53%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$26	+$31	+121%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 23	$26	−$26	-100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$26	−$26	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 21	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$50	+$44	+88%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 20	$20	+$9	+45%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$42	+$47	+112%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$26	−$26	-100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$53	+$87	+164%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 16	$26	−$26	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$9	−$9	-100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-99%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?	Jun 16	$52	+$87	+169%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$26	+$27	+104%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$170	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$111	4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	SELL Portugal	100¢	$56	10h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	44¢	$26	16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	43¢	$26	2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$26	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	100¢	$93	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	52¢	$50	4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	SELL Brazil	99¢	$29	4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	67¢	$20	4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	31¢	$26	4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL Colombia	100¢	$89	6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	46¢	$42	6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$26	6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$53	7d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Iraq	42¢	$36	7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$9	7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$15	7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$25	8d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?	BUY Yes	36¢	$52	10d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	98¢	$52	11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$26	11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$26	11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$193	29d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$206	29d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.49 · official $457.77 · 67 history records