Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcc5…7dfc world 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%30W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$37
14 days−$47
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$40
other 22% −$11
politics 13% +$2
sports 13% +$12
economics 4% +$1
finance 3% +$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.7% -13.7% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 38 +51.5% +37.0% 21% 3% -10.4%
≤90d 84 +24.7% +12.8% 29% 5% -9.7%
all 100 +20.8% +9.3% 30% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -1.2% 4% -18.4%
15% -10.7% 2% -26.3%
20% -19.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses30 / 70
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage343d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $95 −$3 -3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $141 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $141 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $218 −$23 -10%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $50 −$12 -24%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $338 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $80 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $272 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $187 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $403 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $319 −$4 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $170 −$3 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $436 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $378 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $179 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $322 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $117 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $189 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $5 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $286 −$15 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $174 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $178 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $97 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $152 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $372 +$2 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $21 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $450 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $42 −$6 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $98 +$24 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $159 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $166 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $161 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $328 +$3 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $162 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $92 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $95 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $17 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $124 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $141 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $112 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $141 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $62 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $85 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $11 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $38 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $50 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $70 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $98 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $169 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $63 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $16 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $80 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.87 · official $0.00 · 487 history records