Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcc6…3b11 other 11 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-65%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$15
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-82.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -80.2% -82.0% 11% 0% -73.1%
≤30d 9 -80.2% -82.0% 11% 0% -73.1%
≤90d 9 -80.2% -82.0% 11% 0% -73.1%
all 9 -80.2% -82.0% 11% 0% -73.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.0% 0% -73.1%
10% -83.8% 0% -75.7%
15% -85.3% 0% -78.1%
20% -86.8% 0% -80.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 15 history records