Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfccf…2aef crypto 1095 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized +$305 · open −$233
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%469W / 625L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$62
14 days+$196
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$48
crypto 26% −$229
other 8% +$29
world 4% +$178
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 44% -7.9%
≤30d 272 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 40% -3.6%
≤90d 1094 -8.1% -16.8% 43% 35% -6.9%
all 1094 -8.1% -16.8% 43% 35% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 35% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 31% -15.8%
15% -32.0% 26% -24.0%
20% -38.7% 21% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$305
Unrealized−$233
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses469 / 625
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1094 / 1095
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $259 $26 −$233 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $11 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$34 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +27%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +24%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 $0 -2%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +37%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$14 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +29%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$7 +18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 78¢ $65 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $21 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $21 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 8h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 55¢ $10 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $14 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $12 14h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL No 85¢ $9 14h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $10 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $32 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $22 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $24 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.37 · official $26.37 (match) · 3500 history records