Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcd3…5f54 crypto 335 markets active 5h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (212 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,254 (-12%) realized −$1,254 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%185W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day212.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$1,189
14 days−$1,501
30 days−$1,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,482
sports 0% −$18
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (212 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 281 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 42% -21.1%
≤30d 335 -9.2% -17.8% 55% 40% -22.2%
≤90d 335 -9.2% -17.8% 55% 40% -22.2%
all 335 -9.2% -17.8% 55% 40% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover212.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 40% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 32% -29.7%
15% -32.9% 24% -36.5%
20% -39.5% 15% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses185 / 150
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)335 / 335
History coverage12d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day212.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 335 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$16 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$20 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$17 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$17 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2969 history records