Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfcd6…57e6 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$340 (+2%) realized +$330 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$112
economics 26% +$110
sports 14% +$209
politics 12% +$123
world 9% −$261
crypto 7% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 67% +22.3%
≤90d 17 +14.4% +3.5% 71% 59% -6.1%
all 36 +3.7% -6.1% 78% 31% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 31% -7.9%
10% -15.1% 28% -16.7%
15% -23.3% 25% -24.8%
20% -30.8% 19% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,097) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$120 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$330
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage240d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 50¢ $72 $83 +$11 (+15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 48¢ 48¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $84 −$83 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $82 +$77 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $106 +$102 +96%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $111 −$109 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $104 +$129 +124%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $114 +$77 +67%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $72 +$28 +40%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $143 −$142 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $112 +$100 +90%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Apr 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 11 $147 −$146 -99%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $107 +$132 +124%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 03 $13 +$2 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $1,327 +$22 +2%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 29 $7 +$4 +61%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 29 $17 +$5 +32%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $1,237 +$53 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 18 $1,207 +$72 +6%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $1,151 +$56 +5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $1,179 −$29 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $1,124 +$55 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 14 $1,083 +$40 +4%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 05 $1,038 +$46 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 18 $284 −$284 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $251 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $1,005 +$64 +6%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 03 $1,209 +$47 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 18 $1,174 +$35 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $1,097 +$78 +7%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Nov 02 $20 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Nov 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Nov 02 $1,027 +$20 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $69 −$69 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $49 +$20 +41%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $29 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,028 +$18 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 48¢ $62 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $74 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $84 14d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $82 22d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $106 29d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 49¢ $111 36d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Sabres 44¢ $104 43d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $114 49d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 71¢ $72 55d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 68¢ $143 55d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 52¢ $112 63d
Maple Leafs vs. Senators BUY Maple Leafs 37¢ $102 70d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $49 73d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $98 73d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 44¢ $107 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $1,327 86d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $1,237 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 89¢ $13 98d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $7 98d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 98d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 94¢ $1,207 110d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,151 128d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,151 129d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,179 140d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,124 160d
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 96¢ $1,083 169d
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $524 182d
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $514 182d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $284 188d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,005 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.15 · official $143.15 (match) · 73 history records