Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcd7…99e6 crypto 415 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,214 (+2%) realized +$1,214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%263W / 152L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,621
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 62% -2.8%
≤30d 127 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 57% -15.4%
≤90d 415 -4.0% -13.1% 63% 56% -14.3%
all 415 -4.0% -13.1% 63% 56% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 56% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 53% -22.5%
15% -29.0% 39% -30.0%
20% -36.0% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$163 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses263 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)415 / 415
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 415 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$39 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $121 −$119 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$107 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $96 −$92 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $113 +$82 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $220 +$65 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $111 +$35 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $123 +$45 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $229 +$54 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $89 +$67 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $162 +$124 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$80 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$162 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $95 +$80 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$104 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $68 +$27 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $61 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$104 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $80 +$39 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$47 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $99 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $74 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $79 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $50 +$38 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $58 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $48 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $66 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $80 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $96 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records