Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcd9…e46e crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-17%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%66W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$113
14 days−$113
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$49
other 23% −$62
sports 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -25.6% -32.7% 56% 50% -29.8%
≤30d 100 -25.6% -32.7% 56% 50% -29.8%
≤90d 100 -25.6% -32.7% 56% 50% -29.8%
all 118 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 50% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 50% -26.5%
10% -28.0% 22% -33.5%
15% -35.0% 14% -39.9%
20% -41.3% 10% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage137d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 31h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 37h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 37h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 37h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 37h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 38h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records