Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfcdc…99a3
other · 9 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$2 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 6 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? No 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% $0
weather 15% −$2
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY No 14¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.3% +20.6% 67% 67% -8.8%
≤30d 3 +33.3% +20.6% 67% 67% -8.8%
≤90d 3 +33.3% +20.6% 67% 67% -8.8%
all 3 +33.3% +20.6% 67% 67% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 67% -8.8%
10% +9.1% 67% -17.5%
15% -1.5% 67% -25.5%
20% -11.1% 33% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $7.95 (match) · 11 history records