Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfcdc…60b7 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$80 (+14%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.2% +6.0% 82% 71% +12.8%
≤30d 17 +17.2% +6.0% 82% 71% +12.8%
≤90d 17 +17.2% +6.0% 82% 71% +12.8%
all 17 +17.2% +6.0% 82% 71% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 71% +12.8%
10% -4.1% 65% +2.0%
15% -13.4% 41% -7.9%
20% -21.9% 18% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.43 per $1 lost it wins $4.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $133 +$46 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $96 +$37 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$16 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$11 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records