Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfcdd…c6bb sports 333 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$593 (+6%) realized +$583 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%193W / 139L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$69
14 days+$63
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$283
other 26% +$142
world 1% +$15
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -7.8% -16.6% 56% 56% -15.0%
≤30d 185 +2.0% -7.7% 56% 56% -9.6%
≤90d 332 +5.4% -4.7% 58% 58% -5.5%
all 332 +5.4% -4.7% 58% 58% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 58% -5.5%
10% -13.8% 57% -14.6%
15% -22.1% 51% -22.8%
20% -29.7% 39% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$583
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses193 / 139
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions1
Markets (closed)332 / 333
History coverage57d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 86¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 +$44 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 +$10 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$36 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$7 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $41 +$32 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$13 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$29 +141%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $40 +$14 +36%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $40 +$19 +48%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $41 +$32 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $41 +$35 +86%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$21 +105%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $35 +$15 +42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $40 +$12 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $40 +$14 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $40 +$18 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 67¢ $20 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $41 35h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 22¢ $10 35h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $31 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $41 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $30 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $50 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 64¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $30 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 61¢ $30 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.66 · official $19.66 (match) · 537 history records