Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FC 0xfcde…5fa7 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$536 (+13%) realized +$536 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$444
7 days+$685
14 days+$685
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$622
other 18% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +20.0% +8.6% 100% 71% +5.5%
≤30d 14 +20.0% +8.6% 100% 71% +5.5%
≤90d 14 +20.0% +8.6% 100% 71% +5.5%
all 18 +12.1% +1.4% 94% 61% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 61% +4.8%
10% -8.3% 33% -5.2%
15% -17.1% 6% -14.4%
20% -25.3% 6% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$26 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.7 per $1 lost it wins $26.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage110d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $711 +$23 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $600 +$110 +18%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $513 +$87 +17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $413 +$100 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $382 +$32 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $356 +$26 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $290 +$66 +23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $257 +$83 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $228 +$30 +13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $171 +$56 +33%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$64 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $21 +$6 +28%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Draw at halftime? Mar 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $18 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $734 52m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $711 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $711 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $600 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $601 6h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $513 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $513 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $413 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $414 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $382 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $382 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $356 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $356 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $290 39h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $257 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $257 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $228 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $227 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $171 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $107 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 110d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records