Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcdf…df67 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+12%) realized +$79 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$17
sports 37% +$11
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.9% -20.3% 33% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 35 -19.6% -27.3% 37% 37% -6.0%
≤90d 35 -19.6% -27.3% 37% 37% -6.0%
all 35 -19.6% -27.3% 37% 37% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 37% -6.0%
10% -34.3% 34% -15.0%
15% -40.6% 34% -23.2%
20% -46.4% 34% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $58 +$43 +74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $39 +$46 +120%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$41 +81%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $17 +$51 +293%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +60%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +66%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$8 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $44 7h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $58 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 31h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $101 31h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $58 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 86¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $92 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $24 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.78 · official $40.68 (match) · 62 history records