trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 22% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 22% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 20 | +14.9% | +3.9% | 60% | 15% | -5.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.9% | 15% | -5.8% |
| 10% | -6.0% | 15% | -14.8% |
| 15% | -15.1% | 10% | -23.0% |
| 20% | -23.4% | 10% | -30.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 04 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 03 | $110 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 03 | $23 | −$1 | -6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 30 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 30 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 29 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 29 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? | Mar 24 | $2 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -42% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 22 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? | Mar 22 | $1 | +$2 | +200% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 22 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Grand Canyon vs. Seattle | Mar 20 | $16 | +$16 | +100% |