Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfce2…34bd other 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,761 (-1%) realized −$1,761 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,256per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$27
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$207
politics 32% −$75
sports 12% −$1,504
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$1
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -3.9% -13.0% 10% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 84 +0.4% -9.2% 8% 4% -9.6%
all 143 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 13% -10.4%
10% -18.3% 13% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 11% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,660) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$26 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,761
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,256
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $2,101 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $365 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 22 $375 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,469 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,798 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,334 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $364 +$4 +1%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,184 −$6 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,700 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,794 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $5,288 −$7 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 05 $76 +$63 +83%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,896 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,374 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $573 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $4,273 −$5 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,313 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $848 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $4,342 −$5 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $65 +$171 +262%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $501 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,941 −$4 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,829 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $4,144 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $342 19m
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $342 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $344 2h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $344 3h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $364 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $365 8h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $374 31h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $375 32h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $462 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $462 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $406 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $406 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $422 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $423 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $581 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $582 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,351 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,277 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,332 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,334 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $364 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,153 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,245 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,246 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 496 history records