Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:26:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

FC 0xfce4…8341 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$318 (+17%) realized +$302 · open +$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown55%max

Avg bet$265per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-29.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-20.8%	-28.3%	40%	40%	-2.0%
≤30d	6	-22.2%	-29.6%	33%	33%	-2.9%
≤90d	6	-22.2%	-29.6%	33%	33%	-2.9%
all	6	-22.2%	-29.6%	33%	33%	-2.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.6%	33%	-2.9%
10%	-36.3%	0%	-12.2%
15%	-42.5%	0%	-20.7%
20%	-48.1%	0%	-28.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$158 vs −$46 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$66

Realized+$302

Unrealized+$16

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage13d

Avg bet$265

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown55%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	22¢	$50	$66	+$16 (+31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$149	−$149	-100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$48	−$16	-33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Jun 25	$1,472	+$310	+21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$52	−$3	-6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Jun 25	$35	+$5	+15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Jun 17	$49	−$14	-29%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	1¢	$45	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$32	34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	97¢	$1,782	34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$48	34h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	SELL No	94¢	$40	35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	BUY No	81¢	$35	9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL Yes	5¢	$35	9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	79¢	$1,472	11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$48	12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$52	12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$52	12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY Yes	7¢	$49	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.70 · official $65.70 (match) · 27 history records