Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfce8…e713 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$999 (+13%) realized +$999 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,610
other 21% +$61
world 5% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +46.2% +32.2% 47% 47% +5.9%
≤30d 34 +46.2% +32.2% 47% 47% +5.9%
≤90d 34 +46.2% +32.2% 47% 47% +5.9%
all 34 +46.2% +32.2% 47% 47% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.2% 47% +5.9%
10% +19.6% 47% -4.3%
15% +8.0% 44% -13.5%
20% -2.6% 44% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$222 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$999
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 +$748 +365%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $203 +$241 +119%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 +$214 +105%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $205 +$413 +201%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$296 +146%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$402 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$10 -5%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $407 +$578 +142%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $127 −$77 -61%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $204 +$337 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $205 +$106 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $407 −$400 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$106 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 +$337 +165%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,122 −$1,100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $256 +$831 +325%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $102 +$103 +101%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $26 +$224 +874%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$34 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 2h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 25¢ $204 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 38¢ $618 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $193 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 22h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $204 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $205 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $50 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $204 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $127 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $203 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $203 44h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $311 46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $205 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records