Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfce8…2686 sports 708 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$349 (-4%) realized −$355 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%458W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$102
14 days−$153
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 60% -16.6%
≤30d 332 -3.6% -12.8% 66% 64% -13.0%
≤90d 705 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 63% -13.8%
all 705 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 63% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 63% -13.8%
10% -22.6% 56% -22.0%
15% -30.1% 41% -29.6%
20% -36.9% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses458 / 247
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions3
Markets (closed)705 / 708
History coverage56d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Rune Eaters 63¢ 82¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B ECHO 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5) FOKUS 74¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: OG (-2.5) vs Grind Back (+2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$11 +57%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +27%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$8 +38%
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$7 +32%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $20 +$6 +30%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $30 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $20 +$14 +67%
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$22 +106%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $20 +$6 +27%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $20 +$13 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 74¢ $20 23m
Game Handicap: OG (-2.5) vs Grind Back (+2.5) SELL Grind Back 100¢ $8 29m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $28 30m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 63¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 60¢ $20 2h
Game Handicap: OG (-2.5) vs Grind Back (+2.5) SELL Grind Back 100¢ $30 2h
Game Handicap: OG (-2.5) vs Grind Back (+2.5) BUY Grind Back 79¢ $30 3h
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) SELL Grind Back 100¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY Inner Circle Esports 72¢ $20 4h
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 63¢ $20 13h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 83¢ $20 19h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 78¢ $20 19h
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) SELL Grind Back 100¢ $26 19h
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 76¢ $20 23h
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) SELL REKONIX 100¢ $28 23h
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) BUY REKONIX 72¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $20 30h
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $39 30h
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Mentality Monster 51¢ $20 38h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 43¢ $15 40h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY FURIA 82¢ $30 45h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $34 46h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $30 47h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua SELL K27 100¢ $29 47h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 68¢ $20 2d
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 89¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Walczaki 62¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 70¢ $20 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.62 · official $65.62 (match) · 1429 history records