Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfced…d191
sports · 26 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$75 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$150
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)18 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 8 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 44¢ 56¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 40¢ 100¢ $14 $35 +$21 (+150%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 56¢ 100¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+78%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the IEM Cologne Major 2026 playoffs? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 37¢ 20¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 48¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 18¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
England vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 48¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 50¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Bahcesehir Koleji 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 50¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 37¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $16 +$12 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 +$31 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $9 +$32 +344%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 +$7 +80%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $9 +$8 +83%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $40 +$50 +124%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$113
other 16% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 37¢ $10 28m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 40¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $15 2h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 3h
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the IEM Cologne Major 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 37¢ $15 4h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 17h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $16 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $16 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $27 26h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $13 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $9 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 48¢ $30 27h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $9 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $5 28h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 28h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 39h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 40h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 40h
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $9 42h
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji BUY Bahcesehir Koleji 35¢ $10 46h
England vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 46h
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $9 46h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +10.1%
≤30d 18 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +10.1%
≤90d 18 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +10.1%
all 18 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 44% +10.1%
10% -13.8% 44% -0.5%
15% -22.1% 44% -10.1%
20% -29.7% 44% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.69 · official $149.70 (match) · 37 history records