Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfcef…fd7f sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$554 (-3%) realized −$825 · open +$271
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%40W / 56L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$307est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$820
7 days+$496
14 days+$175
30 days−$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$314
other 3% −$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 96 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 39% -13.3%
≤90d 96 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 39% -13.3%
all 96 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 39% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 39% -13.3%
10% -35.4% 38% -21.6%
15% -41.7% 35% -29.2%
20% -47.4% 27% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$131 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,260
Realized−$825
Unrealized+$271
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses40 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$307
Open positions6
Markets (closed)96 / 102
History coverage22d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Flame Team 54¢ 100¢ $378 $700 +$322 (+85%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Dynamo Esports 67¢ 66¢ $303 $301 −$2 (-1%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 62¢ 57¢ $131 $120 −$10 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 49¢ 36¢ $76 $56 −$20 (-27%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 48¢ 30¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $93 +$77 +83%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $910 −$898 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $158 −$155 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $645 +$323 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $70 +$52 +73%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $58 +$51 +89%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $93 +$64 +69%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 14 $50 −$49 -97%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $59 +$52 +88%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$153 +250%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $198 +$148 +74%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $35 +$77 +216%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $311 −$308 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $228 −$227 -100%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 13 $9 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $139 −$134 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,209 +$604 +50%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $293 +$252 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,012 +$490 +48%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $868 +$42 +5%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $114 +$77 +67%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 10 $186 −$172 -93%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $195 +$168 +86%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $229 +$82 +36%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 10 $99 +$88 +89%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $125 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 09 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $233 −$230 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $515 −$73 -14%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $157 +$78 +50%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $116 −$115 -99%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 08 $98 −$94 -95%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $267 −$263 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $438 −$27 -6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $122 +$45 +37%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $406 +$336 +83%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) Jun 07 $34 −$33 -98%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $169 −$166 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $757 +$395 +52%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 05 $127 −$124 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $575 +$328 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $50 1m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $53 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $36 2h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $270 2h
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 54¢ $55 3h
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 54¢ $328 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $77 3h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 62¢ $132 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 42¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $93 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $74 39h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $836 39h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 23¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 23¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 33¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 34¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 35¢ $46 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 42¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 29¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 29¢ $66 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 8¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 8¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 9¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 11¢ $10 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $14 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $44 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 66¢ $645 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,260.30 · official $1,260.30 (match) · 282 history records