Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfcf1…99d3 sports 857 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,510 (-8%) realized −$24,680 · open +$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%487W / 366L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1,030est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$418
7 days+$45
14 days−$26,340
30 days−$25,923
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$19,400
other 17% −$5,743
crypto 5% −$14
world 0% +$181
tech 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 51% -9.4%
≤30d 245 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 38% -33.6%
≤90d 245 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 38% -33.6%
all 853 -9.0% -17.7% 57% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 50% -16.8%
10% -25.5% 41% -24.8%
15% -32.7% 29% -32.0%
20% -39.3% 20% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$294 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$2,082
Realized−$24,680
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses487 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,030
Open positions4
Markets (closed)853 / 857
History coverage224d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 853 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 72¢ 68¢ $1,387 $1,315 −$72 (-5%)
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Stefanos Sakellaridis 39¢ 100¢ $200 $506 +$306 (+153%)
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) Fery 73¢ 95¢ $200 $261 +$61 (+31%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 42¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $338 −$35 -10%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $1,116 +$650 +58%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $84 +$44 +52%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $199 −$197 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $96 +$86 +90%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $184 +$218 +118%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $103 +$81 +79%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $94 +$8 +9%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $50 +$44 +88%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 16 $61 −$12 -19%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $202 −$197 -98%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $551 −$543 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $204 +$351 +172%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $465 +$242 +52%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $304 +$268 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $157 +$33 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $127 −$1 -1%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $326 +$123 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $264 +$21 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $448 +$47 +10%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $189 +$354 +188%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $168 −$96 -57%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $401 −$393 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $318 +$84 +26%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $597 −$586 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1,158 −$21 -2%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $167 +$789 +473%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $1,253 −$1,236 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $296 −$290 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $820 −$800 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $501 +$615 +123%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 14 $363 −$63 -17%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $924 −$910 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $357 +$48 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $550 +$71 +13%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $318 +$159 +50%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $202 +$124 +61%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $747 +$993 +133%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $385 +$359 +93%
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $494 −$486 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $808 −$800 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $1,020 −$1,001 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 72¢ $1,398 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 39¢ $204 1h
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) BUY Fery 73¢ $202 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 12¢ $36 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 90¢ $376 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 72¢ $303 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $1,766 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $997 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 64¢ $118 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 42¢ $128 5h
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Iveta Dapkute 67¢ $199 17h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 65¢ $84 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $96 19h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 19¢ $205 20h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $402 20h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ $184 21h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $184 21h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $103 22h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 91¢ $103 22h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 83¢ $94 23h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $94 23h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 52¢ $50 23h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee SELL Eunhye Lee 37¢ $49 23h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 22¢ $202 24h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 56¢ $294 25h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 42¢ $234 25h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 27¢ $23 25h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $555 25h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 36¢ $204 26h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 42¢ $305 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,082.40 · official $2,082.40 (match) · 1974 history records