Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcf2…f765 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$10
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$89
sports 34% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% -6.1%
≤30d 34 +5.8% -4.3% 44% 44% -12.7%
≤90d 34 +5.8% -4.3% 44% 44% -12.7%
all 34 +5.8% -4.3% 44% 44% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 44% -12.7%
10% -13.4% 44% -21.0%
15% -21.8% 35% -28.7%
20% -29.5% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage11d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 +$20 +50%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 -5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$10 +51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$16 +89%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$20 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $182 −$103 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $20 4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 5h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $14 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 66¢ $20 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 66¢ $20 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 29h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 31h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $20 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 43h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $0 43h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $10 43h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 43h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.35 · official $69.35 (match) · 72 history records