Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfcf4…d8ca world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+5%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$29
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$30
world 23% −$2
politics 14% +$16
finance 10% −$3
other 7% +$3
tech 7% −$3
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.1% +3.3% 75% 25% -2.6%
≤30d 13 +11.9% +1.2% 85% 38% -1.7%
≤90d 35 +4.5% -5.5% 63% 29% -5.0%
all 36 +1.6% -8.1% 61% 28% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 28% -5.2%
10% -16.9% 19% -14.3%
15% -24.9% 6% -22.6%
20% -32.3% 3% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage107d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $123 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $59 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $22 +$12 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $12 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 +3%
Rocket League: Twisted Minds vs Karmine Corp (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris May 24 $11 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $22 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 23 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $28 +$5 +17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more? Apr 24 $27 +$9 +34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $42 −$3 -6%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 14 $78 +$8 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 06 $28 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 04 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 Apr 02 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 30 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $40 −$6 -14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? Mar 27 $6 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Mar 23 $20 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Mar 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 23 $8 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Mar 23 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? Mar 23 $8 +$2 +24%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 63¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 49¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 27¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 41¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 75¢ $23 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 68¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 50¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 58¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 70¢ $24 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 63¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $22 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $21 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 80¢ $17 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 72¢ $12 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 40¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 71¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 70¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 39¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 86¢ $11 11d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $11 11d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 20d
Rocket League: Twisted Minds vs Karmine Corp (BO7) - RLCS Major Paris BUY Karmine Corp 99¢ $11 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.55 · official $39.55 (match) · 108 history records