Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcf7…1072 crypto 1355 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate82%1113W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day262.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 922 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 41% -9.5%
≤30d 1353 +0.3% -9.3% 82% 39% -9.6%
≤90d 1353 +0.3% -9.3% 82% 39% -9.6%
all 1353 +0.3% -9.3% 82% 39% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover262.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 39% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1113 / 240
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1353 / 1355
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day262.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 61¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 77¢ 28¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.33 · official $6.88 (match) · 3500 history records