Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfcfb…21c4
crypto · 105 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$49 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses52 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage86d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 4 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Knicks Celtics 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Kings vs. Warriors Kings 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-07? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -63%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$14 +332%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +264%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +106%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 10 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$1 -42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$3 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 +$4 +417%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +26%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$5
sports 34% +$1
crypto 17% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 96¢ $6 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $4 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 19h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $2 20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $1 32h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +30.2% +17.8% 56% 56% +20.8%
≤30d 16 +30.2% +17.8% 56% 56% +20.8%
≤90d 101 +0.1% -9.5% 51% 41% -10.1%
all 101 +0.1% -9.5% 51% 41% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 41% -10.1%
10% -18.1% 30% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 25% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.18 · official $18.21 (match) · 235 history records