Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfcfb…b4cc other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$11 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$15
sports 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.9% -33.9% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤30d 10 -26.9% -33.9% 50% 50% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -26.9% -33.9% 50% 50% -10.3%
all 10 -26.9% -33.9% 50% 50% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 50% -10.3%
10% -40.2% 50% -18.9%
15% -46.0% 50% -26.7%
20% -51.3% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$66 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $154 $165 +$11 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 +$56 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 −$111 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$60 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$63 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$69 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $155 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $99 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $113 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $148 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.38 · official $165.40 (match) · 21 history records