Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfcfe…239d other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$14
politics 16% −$7
other 10% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$15
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 8% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 47 +1.1% -8.5% 19% 15% -9.3%
all 61 +0.7% -8.9% 21% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 11% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 10% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 10% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage610d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $220 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $103 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 18 $8 +$7 +97%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 13 $94 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$6 +79%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$6 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 08 $5 $0 -7%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $11 +$7 +59%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 06 $17 +$13 +76%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Mar 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $95 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $79 28d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $7 28d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $79 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.63 · official $81.63 (match) · 281 history records