Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcff…8528 weather 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-2%) realized −$35 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%33W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$391
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 128 +13.1% +2.3% 26% 9% -13.6%
≤90d 128 +13.1% +2.3% 26% 9% -13.6%
all 128 +13.1% +2.3% 26% 9% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 9% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 6% -21.9%
15% -16.4% 5% -29.4%
20% -24.6% 5% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$3,178
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses33 / 95
Open positions34
Markets (closed)128 / 162
History coverage18d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28? No 94¢ 98¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? No 92¢ 94¢ $100 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28? No 95¢ 96¢ $100 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? No 90¢ 91¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28? No 96¢ 96¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 28? No 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 28? No 95¢ 95¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 28? No 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 28? No 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 28? No 91¢ 90¢ $99 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? No 89¢ 90¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 28? No 97¢ 96¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 28? No 89¢ 88¢ $99 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 28? No 96¢ 95¢ $100 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 28? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? No 92¢ 90¢ $99 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28? No 98¢ 95¢ $100 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28? No 98¢ 96¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 28? No 96¢ 94¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? No 87¢ 90¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on June 28? No 95¢ 90¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 28? No 86¢ 84¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? No 94¢ 86¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $153 −$32 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 −$30 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $124 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 12 $139 −$33 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $44 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $27 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $85 −$80 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 12 $31 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $78 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 −$20 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $128 −$12 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $48 −$8 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $152 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $77 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 −$21 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 12 $24 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $22 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $152 −$21 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 12 $37 −$7 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $152 −$12 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 −$8 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $112 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 −$8 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$12 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $21 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $72 −$16 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $24 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $165 −$33 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $76 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 28? BUY No 91¢ $25 6m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $6 28m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $51 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $62 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $51 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 83¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $78 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 28? BUY No 86¢ $62 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $93 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $87 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $82 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $84 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $79 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $76 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $94 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 73¢ $74 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 65¢ $73 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 93¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $99 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,178.46 · official $3,177.43 (match) · 781 history records