Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd00…d1af
weather · 640 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$79 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,739 · open −$98
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,287
Realized−$1,739
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses148 / 273
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions31
Markets (closed)421 / 640
History coverage135d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 31 History 421 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,048
7 days−$1,145
14 days−$1,224
30 days−$1,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $763 $851 +$89 (+12%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 100¢ $694 $704 +$10 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 98¢ 100¢ $692 $703 +$11 (+2%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? No 100¢ 100¢ $354 $355 +$1 (+0%)
Germany to win the second half? Yes 19¢ 94¢ $56 $276 +$221 (+397%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $88 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+7%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? No 98¢ 100¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? No 95¢ 100¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+5%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $57 $16 −$41 (-72%)
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+12%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+56%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 41¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Curaçao to win the second half? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $173 $1 −$172 (-99%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $72 $1 −$71 (-98%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 2¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$13 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 24¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 18 and May 24, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $572 −$266 -46%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $854 −$548 -64%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $155 −$4 -3%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +650%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $336 −$31 -9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $116 −$64 -55%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $90 −$17 -19%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $78 −$67 -86%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $98 −$87 -89%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $386 +$21 +5%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $5 +$53 +1055%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 −$44 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $90 −$30 -33%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,938 +$174 +9%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $421 −$121 -29%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $463 +$333 +72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $271 −$252 -93%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $60 −$58 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $47 −$46 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Second half draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $42 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +212%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 +$5 +9429%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $0 +$1 +285%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $236 +$53 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$53 +498%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$19 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +99%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $69 −$67 -96%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 41% +$43
other 31% −$903
sports 24% −$682
politics 1% −$214
economics 1% −$68
tech 1% −$11
culture 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 33m
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 33m
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 33m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 33m
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 33m
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 33m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Second half draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 33m
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY Yes 60¢ $161 33m
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 33m
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $300 56m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $29 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $368 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $33 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $39 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $368 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -47.0% -52.0% 12% 10% -25.4%
≤30d 239 -48.8% -53.6% 12% 9% -28.4%
≤90d 415 -33.2% -39.6% 35% 7% -18.7%
all 421 -33.0% -39.4% 35% 7% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 7% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 5% -26.5%
15% -50.5% 5% -33.6%
20% -55.3% 4% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,286.94 · official $3,286.95 (match) · 3296 history records