Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FD 0xfd06…b333 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$617 (+40%) realized +$618 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%29W / 27L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$357
7 days+$555
14 days+$645
30 days+$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$544
crypto 21% +$106
other 6% −$24
world 3% −$19
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +18.4% +7.2% 56% 53% +30.3%
≤30d 56 +16.3% +5.2% 52% 50% +27.3%
≤90d 56 +16.3% +5.2% 52% 50% +27.3%
all 56 +16.3% +5.2% 52% 50% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 50% +27.3%
10% -4.8% 48% +15.1%
15% -14.0% 45% +4.0%
20% -22.5% 41% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$12 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)56 / 62
History coverage19d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $204 +$82 +40%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$56 +276%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$30 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 +$16 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $249 +$215 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$69 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -28%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$8 -68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 +$23 +129%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 +$7 +101%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -9%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $141 +$155 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$35 -34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $43 −$19 -44%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 +$43 +105%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $16 −$16 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +276%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 +$6 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $21 +$17 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$22 +216%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$20 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $13 +$10 +76%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $25 +$28 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $287 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $41 8h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 17h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $0 18h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $7 18h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 18h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $24 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.48 · official $62.49 (match) · 128 history records