Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd06…263b other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+5%) realized +$78 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$38
sports 3% −$7
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.7% -48.2% 25% 25% +3.8%
≤30d 8 -42.7% -48.2% 25% 25% +3.8%
≤90d 8 -42.7% -48.2% 25% 25% +3.8%
all 9 -49.1% -53.9% 22% 22% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.9% 22% +2.5%
10% -58.3% 22% -7.3%
15% -62.4% 22% -16.3%
20% -66.0% 11% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage95d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 92¢ 48¢ $129 $67 −$62 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $89 +$41 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $64 −$10 -15%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $129 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.60 · official $66.60 (match) · 27 history records