Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd07…fa10 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+5%) realized +$50 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$18
other 27% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +6.7% -3.5% 59% 59% -4.6%
≤30d 32 +6.7% -3.5% 59% 59% -4.6%
≤90d 32 +6.7% -3.5% 59% 59% -4.6%
all 32 +6.7% -3.5% 59% 59% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 59% -4.6%
10% -12.7% 59% -13.7%
15% -21.1% 59% -22.0%
20% -28.9% 53% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 59¢ 44¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 +$17 +109%
Chris Wood: 2+ shots Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$13 +48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$23 +152%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$10 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$15 +59%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$13 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +58%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$24 +93%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $7 +$7 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 +$10 +57%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 +$7 +97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$8 +101%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $38 −$38 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$27 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $32 19h
Chris Wood: 2+ shots BUY Yes 63¢ $35 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $12 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $44 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $25 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 47h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $15 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $13 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $25 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $40 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $11 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $7 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $8 3d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $10 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.80 · official $66.80 (match) · 53 history records