Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd07…cb4e sports 782 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$125 (-0%) realized −$202 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%395W / 384L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$479est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,347
14 days−$549
30 days−$2,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$100
other 10% −$899
politics 1% −$92
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% −$10
tech 0% +$83
weather 0% −$50
economics 0% +$103
culture 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -33.2% -39.5% 37% 30% -31.7%
≤30d 140 -12.4% -20.7% 46% 44% -18.0%
≤90d 196 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 46% -7.7%
all 779 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 45% -10.4%
10% -25.9% 41% -19.0%
15% -33.0% 36% -26.8%
20% -39.6% 29% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$56 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses395 / 384
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$479
Open positions2
Markets (closed)779 / 782
History coverage220d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $280 $262 −$18 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 100¢ $116 $211 +$95 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 293 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $228 +$205 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $294 −$292 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$21 +10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $364 −$318 -87%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $90 +$79 +88%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $270 +$130 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $247 +$53 +21%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $52 +$48 +93%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $394 −$251 -64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $123 −$121 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $176 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $204 −$16 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $834 −$345 -41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $185 +$115 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $314 +$29 +9%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $46 +$54 +119%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $184 −$184 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $529 +$171 +32%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $133 +$167 +125%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $309 −$305 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $111 −$63 -56%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $333 −$23 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $25 +$16 +63%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $24 +$15 +62%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $414 +$108 +26%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $508 +$107 +21%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $553 +$167 +30%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $13 −$3 -23%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $328 +$271 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $49 +$51 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $390 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $62 −$60 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $510 +$290 +57%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $494 −$5 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $28 −$28 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 97¢ $68 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 93¢ $87 49m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 90¢ $336 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $199 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $188 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $214 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $12 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $1 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $133 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $23 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $47 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 98¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 90¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 84¢ $47 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 71¢ $158 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 44¢ $65 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.33 · official $474.33 (match) · 2052 history records