Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd08…0635 sports 643 markets active 4d ago coverage 55d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$13,042 (-14%) realized −$13,042 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%367W / 276L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day62.3pace
Fees−$1,327est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,493
crypto 1% −$176
other 0% −$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -12.5% -20.9% 53% 42% -10.6%
≤30d 340 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 46% -13.2%
≤90d 643 +0.6% -8.9% 57% 46% -12.6%
all 643 +0.6% -8.9% 57% 46% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 46% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 31% -21.0%
15% -25.6% 21% -28.6%
20% -32.9% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$68 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses367 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$1,327
Open positions0
Markets (closed)643 / 643
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$148
Trades / day62.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 643 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $44 −$21 -47%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $18 +$4 +23%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $13 +$5 +41%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $17 −$4 -25%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $13 −$7 -56%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $11 +$3 +24%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $8 +$1 +17%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $49 −$25 -50%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $14 +$11 +74%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $28 −$14 -50%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $179 −$107 -60%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $72 −$43 -60%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $155 −$1 -0%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $94 +$60 +64%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $77 +$19 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $69 +$8 +12%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $53 +$44 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $52 +$18 +35%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $45 −$18 -39%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $12 +$11 +93%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $21 −$9 -43%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $14 −$3 -18%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 10 $11 +$9 +84%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Jun 10 $36 −$17 -47%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $22 +$3 +12%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $21 +$13 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $24 −$24 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $18 +$5 +28%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 09 $37 +$4 +11%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 09 $8 −$1 -16%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $19 −$12 -61%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $74 −$10 -13%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $85 −$39 -46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $239 −$26 -11%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 09 $40 +$8 +21%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $68 −$28 -41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $26 +$42 +160%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $49 −$15 -30%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $69 −$16 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 54¢ $22 4d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 34¢ $22 4d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 32¢ $22 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Atlanta Dream 95¢ $22 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 64¢ $15 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 35¢ $2 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 35¢ $9 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 44¢ $2 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 44¢ $1 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 42¢ $13 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 42¢ $1 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 42¢ $3 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Atlanta Dream 54¢ $17 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 71¢ $23 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 81¢ $18 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 99¢ $18 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 70¢ $13 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $13 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 92¢ $12 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $12 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 93¢ $11 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $1 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $6 5d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson SELL Laura Samson 31¢ $6 5d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 68¢ $13 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 96¢ $13 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 77¢ $11 5d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 99¢ $11 5d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 86¢ $9 5d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec SELL Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records