trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 40% | 20% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 50% | 17% | -8.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 50% | 17% | -8.5% |
| all | 29 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 45% | 7% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.5% | 7% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 0% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 51¢ | 52¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $45 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 18 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +12% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 04 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $87 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 31 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $77 | −$2 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 29 | $36 | +$6 | +16% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 27 | $35 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 11 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 07 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Apr 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? | Apr 05 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 05 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 04 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 02 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 01 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 30 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 19 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 16 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +3% |