Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FD 0xfd0c…e8ec crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$68 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%59W / 7L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$29
other 29% +$4
politics 7% +$132
tech 5% +$1
world 5% −$4
economics 2% $0
sports 1% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 66 -5.5% -14.5% 89% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 8% -8.8%
10% -22.7% 8% -17.5%
15% -30.2% 5% -25.5%
20% -37.0% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses59 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage609d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $260 $260 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 24? No 100¢ 98¢ $146 $144 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $246 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 9? Jun 09 $150 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $240 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $228 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 18 $220 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 07 $223 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Apr 03 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 23? Apr 03 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 03 $125 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 22 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 01 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Mar 01 $220 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 08 $40 +$2 +5%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 19-25? Feb 08 $160 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 08 $240 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? Jan 24 $250 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 Dec 19 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 28 $200 +$3 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $30 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 29 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 21 $245 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in September? Oct 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 16 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,800 on September 12? Sep 28 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4100 on August 13 at 5PM ET? Sep 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 13 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? Jul 24 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 20 $183 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jul 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 18 $135 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in April? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 20 $129 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 21 $215 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $146 1h
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $246 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 14d
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $150 14d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $228 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $240 46d
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 46d
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 46d
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 61d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $114 80d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $40 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $223 80d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 17 to March BUY No 99¢ $70 92d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 92d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $175 112d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 113d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 113d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $238 133d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $160 149d
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? BUY No 96¢ $20 149d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 162d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $240 162d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $250 162d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $230 184d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $250 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.75 · official $403.75 (match) · 135 history records